CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-04-20T00:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-04-20T00:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16759/-1
CME Note: A CME was detected in the east of SOHO C2 coronagraph starting at 2021-04-20T00:12Z. The CME is also visible in SOHO C3 and STEREO A COR2A. The source of the CME was an eruption from AR2816 (S24E23) around 2021-04-19T23:20Z. The eruption was associated with an M1.1 flare starting at 2021-04-19T23:19Z and peaked at 2021-04-19T23:42Z. The CME arrival was predicted to be a glancing blow and a weak signature at L1 by DSCOVR is seen around 04-22T08:50Z. At this time, a magnetic field rotation is visible while the temperature remains low.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-22T08:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-04-23T02:01Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 5.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.33333 - 4.33333
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -32556.10 hour(s)
Difference: -17.18 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z
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